Will Trump Go for the Nuclear Option in Iran?

By Michael Ingle on March 26, 2026 • ( 0 )

We have now reached a point in the Iran War where it appears that Donald Trump will be unable to ‘spin’ the termination of the war without appearing to have suffered a strategic defeat. The Iranian regime still controls the Strait of Hormuz and has demonstrated the ability to follow through on its threats to attack oil and gas facilities plus water desalinisation infrastructure in the Gulf States. There are negotiations of some kind underway, but the parties remain far apart. Meanwhile, US troops are being moved into place for ground operations that could begin as early as the coming weekend.

Trump will soon have to decide whether to whether to withdraw and accept a strategic defeat (which could not be ‘spun’), or pursue a major ground operation that may require up to 500,000 troops (or more) to achieve ‘victory’, however that may be defined. The troop numbers currently en route to the region are clearly inadequate to the task, though they may be enough to establish a temporary foothold on one or more of the Iranian islands in the Strait of Hormuz. Such a foothold would however be open to constant Iranian drone and missile fire, while the Iranians could no doubt stage their own ‘counter landing’ with a much larger number of troops than the Americans have put in.

It may of course be the case that Trump and the US military have some clever plan in mind that could subdue the Iranians without risking enormous casualties for American troops and massive destruction of the Gulf States’ energy and water desalinisation infrastructure. I am very doubtful of that, however. I therefore believe that Trump must be considering the use of nuclear weapons (whether tactical or otherwise) to turn the tide against the Iranian regime and save his reputation. It seems very unlikely that he would be prepared to accept the loss of face that an ignominious withdrawal would entail. If nuclear weapons were to be used, however, how many would be needed? Can we assume that one or two would be enough?

In truth nobody can know what the consequences of using nuclear weapons against Iran would be. It is clear though that affected areas of Iran and the people who live there would be annihilated, while the regime and much of the remaining population would seek opportunities for revenge. It is probable that the US would survive physically unscathed, but its global reputation would be destroyed for many decades and a majority of the world’s population would regard it as a rogue actor. Israel, even if it is not directly involved in the use of nuclear weapons, would be at permanent risk of lethal retaliation and destruction because of its role in starting the war with the US.

It can only be hoped that negotiations involving competent actors (i.e., excluding Donald Trump and Pete Hegseth) are currently underway that can avert the use of nuclear weapons in Iran and bring this war to a negotiated end. Trump has enormous power so long as he remains President of the US, however, and such negotiations may not succeed.

Michael Ingle – michaelingle01@gmail.com