How can the Iran war be brought to an end?

By Michael Ingle on March 14, 2026 • ( 0 )

The Iran war started two weeks ago today. I think it is fair to say now that it has not gone as planned by the US and Israel. There has been no regime change in Iran and Iran has been able to close the Strait of Hormuz – and keep it closed. Donald Trump has stated in a Truth Social post this afternoon that “it’s easy for [Iran] to send a drone or two, drop a mine, or deliver a close range missile somewhere along, or in, this Waterway, no matter how badly defeated they are”. This is an admission that the US and Israel are unable at present to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Trump goes on in his Truth Social post to say that “Hopefully China, France, Japan, South Korea, the UK, and others will send ships to the area so that the Hormuz Strait will no longer be a threat by a Nation that has been totally decapitated”. We do not yet know how these countries will respond, but it seems very unlikely that China will agree to participate in such a mission.

The US and Israel have in effect thrown a deck of cards in the air and we will have to wait some time to see how they land. I do not believe that anyone can now predict how this war will end. However, I am writing this post to set out my own views on how it may end. A friend asked me two days ago what I think should happen. I replied as follows:

“I think there should be an overall security settlement in the Middle East in which every country’s legitimate security interests are respected, guaranteed by the UN, US, Russia and China, and also the EU/UK (if they can agree). That is very unlikely to happen, but otherwise it seems likely Iran will manage to acquire nuclear weapons soon. Meanwhile it will be difficult to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. It may still be possible to persuade the Iranians not to go ahead with their acquisition of nuclear weapons if there is an overall settlement and sanctions are lifted. Israel would also have to agree of course, and would only do so if the US impose huge pressure on them. This war probably has some way to go, and we will have to see how serious the oil/gas supply problem becomes”.

Yesterday, the Financial Times published an article by Vali Nasr, a Professor at Johns Hopkins University, entitled ‘Iran is Playing a Long Game‘ (FT, 13th March 2026). Nasr wrote:

“Iran says it will only accept a ceasefire with international guarantees for its sovereignty, which would probably mean a direct role for Russia and China. It may also demand compensation for war damages and a verifiable ceasefire in Lebanon. The US would then have to agree to some form of the nuclear deal it left on the table in Geneva in February and commit to lifting sanctions. Iran’s leaders entered this war with the goal of ensuring it will be the last one. Either it breaks them or radically changes the country’s circumstances. They are betting on surviving long enough and squeezing the global economy hard enough to realise that goal”.

I thought the views expressed by Professor Nasr were quite similar to those I stated to my friend. He did not however address the need for an overall security settlement in relation to the Middle East. I cannot see how any settlement between Iran, the US and Israel could survive for long without the involvement of Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States and Turkey. The reality is that, as the impact of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has an increasing impact on the global economy, most countries in the world, not just the region, will have a stake in ensuring that an overall settlement is implemented.

Michael Ingle – michaelingle01@gmail.com