The ongoing war between the US, Israel and Iran has cast a spotlight on the position of the Gulf states and in particular the city of Dubai.
It was by no means a surprise that Iran would move quickly to close the Strait of Hormuz if it was attacked again by the US and Israel, but missile and drone attacks on the Gulf States appear not to have been anticipated by most commentators and even, it appears, by the Trump administration in Washington. The situation in the Gulf states is still developing, but the major Gulf airports (with the exception of Muscat Airport in Oman) remain closed and many governments are organising charter flights to return nationals from the area who were either stranded in transit or wish to return to their home countries. While airlines based in the Gulf are now trying to restart normal operations, it is unclear whether they will be able to do so given the proximity of the main Gulf airports to the Strait of Hormuz and the coast of Iran just over 100 miles away.
The future of Dubai, a city that hosts the largest airport in the Gulf and is also one of the most important commercial and tourist centres of the world, suddenly appears to be in doubt. There are reports that some long-term western ‘expats’ (immigrants) are considering moving themselves and their assets to other countries such as Singapore. Residents returning to their home countries, including the UK, are apparently worried that they will lose the tax benefits that lured many of them to move to Dubai in the first place. Some Dubai residents such as the British journalist Isabel Oakeshott, who have delighted in posting on social media about the supposed dangers of life in London, ironically find themselves living in the middle of a war zone.
I have no idea how events will develop from here and whether life in Dubai will return to normal after a short time, or whether there will be a mass evacuation of western residents. Only time will tell. Meanwhile, however, I have been struck by the similarities between modern day Dubai and the Chinese city of Shanghai during the period from the end of World War I to the end of World War II. As in Dubai, a small number of wealthy ‘expats’ lived in the Concession areas of Shanghai (the International Settlement and the French Concession) in the midst of a much larger number of Chinese, many of whom were very poor. The westerners lived a comfortable life on the whole, supported by servants, and profited from running the western businesses operating in the Shanghai area. Life was also very cosmopolitan, with residents hailing from a large number of foreign countries. Like Dubai, Shanghai was also at the centre of an unstable region, affected by internal strife between local Warlords, the Kuomintang and the Communist Party, and from 1932 by the growing threat of Japanese invasion. In the end the Japanese took over the whole of Shanghai after their attack on Pearl Harbour in December 1941. The foreign population in the Concessions were interned and many were tortured, dying at the hands of the Japanese. Their home governments were mostly unable to help them as they were also participants in World War II, though some were released in batches over the period up to 1945.
I do not wish to suggest that the western residents of Dubai will be rounded up and interned by the Iranians or any other particular force in the Middle East. However, they should reflect on the reality of their geographical position. Dubai is less than 100 miles from the coast of Iran and is located right on the Strait of Hormuz, currently the most contested waterway in the world. There are reports that the US is considering sending its warships to escort oil tankers through the Strait. Iran can easily attack air and sea transport in the area with its vast store of drones, even if it runs out of missiles. If it becomes necessary for western governments to evacuate their residents from the area very quickly, that may turn out to be impossible.
I have recently read two books by western residents of Shanghai during the period leading up to and including World War II: ‘Shanghai Lawyer’ by Norwood Altman, and ‘My Twenty-Five Years in China’ by John B. Powell. Norwood Altman was a US diplomat turned lawyer who built up a successful law firm in Shanghai, which moved to Taipei after 1949 and is still in existence. John B Powell was a US newspaperman who edited the English language paper ‘China Weekly Review’ in Shanghai for many years. Powell was interned by the Japanese and returned to the US after the end of WWII, by which time his feet had apparently been turned to stumps by exposure. Altman happened to be on a business trip to Hong Kong at the time of Pearl Harbour, so he was not interned in Shanghai. He was interned in Hong Kong, but was released after around six months so that he could return to the US. Many of his colleagues and associates in Shanghai were interned there, however, and not all of them survived the war. J. G. Ballard’s semi-autobiographical book ‘Empire of the Sun’ also provides an excellent account of the fate of Shanghai’s international residents.
Michael Ingle (michaelingle01@gmail.com)
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